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Scottish independence: What every indyref2 poll has said over the last year

Nicola Sturgeon is set to layout her ‘route map’ for a second independence referendum in the Scottish Parliament next week.

The First Minister will address MSPs on Tuesday, June 28, about her plans to hold a vote without the consent of the United Kingdom Government.

It comes after the first in a series of papers was released last week setting out the Scottish Government ‘s prospectus for a referendum in October 2023.

READ MORE:Nicola Sturgeon set to lay out Scottish independence referendum ‘route map’ next week

SNP ministers have so far failed to formally request a Section 30 order from the UK Government – the legal mechanism that would allow the Scottish Government to stage indyref2 without fear of a challenge in court.

The SNP and Greens have a majority for independence in the parliament, however the opinion polls over the last year haven’t been in the ‘Yes’ camps favour.

Since June 25, 2021 there have been 23 polls conducted by pollsters for a number of media organisations with the independence side leading in just three surveys.

Both sides were tied in two polls when undecided voters were taken into account.

Here’s what the polls have said over the last year:

June 2022

June 1: The latest poll published for STV by Ipsos MORI revealed that 46 per cent would vote ‘No’, while 45 per cent said they’d vote for independence with eight per cent saying they are undecided.

May 2022

May 25: A YouGov/Times survey found that 46 per cent chose ‘No’, but only 38 per cent wanted Scotland to break away from the UK. 11 per cent were undecided.

May 7: The ‘No’ side had a two per cent lead in a Sunday Times Panelbase poll published on April 30.

May 4: Survation’s poll for the Scotsman ahead of the Scottish council election showed a two per cent lead for ‘No’. 47 per cent would have voted against independence, with 45 per cent saying ‘Yes’.

April 2022

April 9: A poll published for the Herald revealed that when removing undecided voters the union side had a six per cent lead.

April 4: Ballot Box Scotland’s poll revealed 47 per cent for ‘No’ and 42 per cent for ‘Yes’.

April 1: A YouGov/These Islands survey found the ‘ Yes ‘ campaign would have achieved 38 per cent, with ‘No’ on 44 per cent. Undecided voters made up 11 per cent which meant unionists had a five per cent lead.

March 2022

Leader of the Better Together campaign in 2014 Alistair Darling

March 18: A Scotsman poll conducted by Savanta ComRes showed support for separation at 44 per cent. Of the 1,008 people asked 49 per cent said they would have voted to remain in the UK.

March 3: The Economist published the results of a poll again carried out by Savanta ComRes. Unionists had a one per cent lead.

February 2022

February 10: Nationalist were given a boost in their campaign with an Ipsos MORI poll showing a seven per cent lead in the poll in February 2022.

January 2022

January 19: A poll at the turn of the year revealed the sides were tied on 46 per cent each with eight per cent of the 1,004 people asked saying they were undecided.

December 2021

December 26: A Sunday Mail/Opinium survey also showed a tie in the results with ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ both achieving 44 per cent amongst the 1,328 people asked. 12 per cent were undecided.

December 1: STV’s poll on December 1 gave independence a lead of nine per cent. It was the first time in eight polls that showed the ‘Yes’ side in the lead.

November 2021

November 23: At the end of November a YouGov survey for the Times gave the ‘No’ side a six per cent lead.

November 13: In the same month a Panelbase poll for the Sunday Times also gave the unionists a lead, this time of just two per cent.

0 Nicola Sturgeon Announces New Scottish Independence Campaign
Nicola Sturgeon and Patrick Harvie at the news confrence in Edinburgh

October 2021

October 29: On the eve of the COP26 climate conference in Glasgow the unionists had a lead of three per cent in a Savanta ComRes/Scotsman poll.

October 27: A few days earlier a Panelbase poll for Scot Goes Pop gave the ‘No’ side a six per cent lead.

September 2021

September 19: A Redfield and Wilton Strategies poll for Politico found put the unionists side in front by three per cent. Of the 1,000 people asked 44 per cent said they would vote for separation, while 47 per cent wanted Scotland to remain in the United Kingdom. Five per cent were undecided.

September 11: Of the just over 2,000 people asked by Panelbase for the Sunday Times 49 per cent said they would vote for ‘No’ in any future vote on independence. 45 per cent said they would vote for independence.

September 10: Earlier in the month a Savanta ComRes poll gave the ‘No’ side a three per cent lead. A Stack Data Strategy for UK onward put ‘Yes’ on 45 per cent and ‘No’ on 49 per cent.

September 9: Independence campaigners had a lead of one per cent at the start of September in a Sky News/Opinium survey.

August 2021

August 6: At the start of August last year a Redfield and Wilton Strategies poll found that unionist had a three per cent lead.

June 2021

June 25: A year ago today a Panelbase/Sunday Times survey asked: If there was a referendum tomorrow with the question “Should Scotland be an Independent country?”, how would you vote?

The poll asked 1,287 which revealed that 48 per cent of people would vote ‘No’, while 45 per cent would select ‘Yes’. Seven per cent were undecided when asked.

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Keep up to date with all the latest stories from Peter Davidson.

As the Live Politics Editor at the Daily Record he covers politics in Holyrood, Westminster and local councils.

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